(AsiaGameHub) –   By: Logan Pierce

Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara is determined to keep her company’s business in Brazil, vowing to “overturn the ban” that has hit the prediction markets platform. Lara believes the ban by the National Monetary Council (CMN) was unfair, stemming from a misunderstanding of Kalshi’s business model.

On 24 April, the CMN instructed Banco Central do Brasil to prohibit prediction market products, ruling that financial derivatives couldn’t be linked to certain outcomes. This move was partly to protect Brazil’s Bets regime, which governs online gambling. Lara argues regulators grouped Kalshi with unrelated platforms.

Kalshi maintains its prediction markets are different from traditional betting, with users trading contracts tied to future events. Lara and co-founder Tarek Mansour stand by the firm’s distinction, saying it should be overseen by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The company, valued at around $22bn, will seek dialogue with Brazilian authorities instead of immediate legal action. Lara hopes it will be faster than in the US, where they’ve been working since 2019. She wants to work constructively with the government.

Meanwhile, in the US, the CFTC has proposed rules that could greenlight sports event contracts on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, though casino-like markets won’t be allowed. The rules also aim to address sports integrity concerns.

Brazil’s Bets Law is seen as a failed experiment, and political blocs are bargaining over its repeal. The October 2026 election could offer Kalshi an entry route.

Author bio: Logan Pierce, independent business researcher and corporate governance writer.